A decade following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that split the country and caused disorder, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly split population where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but very few government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer supports unity or the current situation. Both authors two pieces that strive for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and societal figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates encompass identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," said the writer. "Debate implies an acceptance of the concept that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he said. "One side will win here and somebody will in the end not succeed but each side has got something to gain from the opposing arguments."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."